Mark Penn’s Microtrends: A Book Review
The trends raised in the new book by Burson-Marsteller CEO Mark J. Penn are bigger than the title suggests. Like the warning on the passenger side mirror (objects are closer than they appear), Microtrends examines “under the radar forces…which are powerfully shaping our society.”Famous for identifying the importance of the "soccer mom" demographic, Mr. Penn identifies more than 70 microtrends, which collectively embody a larger marketing strategy. Like microelectronics and microfibers, so goes marketing. He predicts that microtargeting will come to dominate advertising and marketing. In time, we will witness a huge expansion of personal communications where the right products are advertised to the right niches of people.
How big these small forces actually are is a matter debate, but when I got an email from Burson Marsteller asking me to review the book, I accepted the opportunity to comment.
Mr. Penn cites many compelling microtends, but just as it is dangerous to go too macro, it is also risky to go too small. The small picture can distort, drowning us in a sea of details, with each trend as important (or unimportant) as the next. Many of his examples are counterinituitive like Long Attention Spanners in the age of ADD and Shy Millionaires in era of bling and conspicuous consumption.
One microtrend I found particularly relevant looked at DIY Doctors – Do It Yourself Doctors. These are people who research their own symptoms, diagnose their own illnesses, and administer their own cures. It’s big business. In 2002, a growing number of American adults say they have used non-doctor provided alternative medicines, and the number of Direct to Consumer ads by the drug industry has risen from $1 billion in 1997 to $4 billion in 2004. People are making their own choices when it comes to medical care.
The Internet’s easy access to medical information is putting expertise in the hands of the DIY Doctors. What goes for medical information also goes to book reviewers and bloggers. Take a look at the number of non-professional book reviews on Amazon that are helping drive sales. And consider the power of citizen journalists to topple newscasters like Dan Rather and senatorial candidates like George Allen.
Technology is the great leveler turning amateurs into experts. As a communications professional, I grapple with how blogs, social networks and other forms of social media are challenging our assumptions about expertise, opinions and authority. In the age of social media, an individual or small group of individuals need only a computer and Internet connection to bypass traditional communications channels and power elites.
Reading Mr. Penn’s book, I kept thinking about two theories that have gained popular currency: the butterfly effect and the long tail.
The butterfly effect states that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in one part of the world can lead to a typhoon in another. Or more broadly, small variations of the initial condition may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the overall system.
Coined by Wired Magazine’s Chris Anderson, the long tail theory states that the total sales volume of low popularity items exceeds the volume of high popularity items if the distribution channel is large enough.
Together these laws reinforce Microtrends larger premise that “small trends” and “slight changes” will “trigger profound changes in the shape of our globe and the character of our society.” Going forward, the challenge won’t be the loss of identity associated with mass communications; it will be trying to find consumers though a ever-widening number of niche markets
As a pollster, Mr. Penn puts a lot of faith in the power of statistics. Most of us don’t have his level of experience and expertise. Thought provoking, engaging and useful, the book’s insights beg the next question: how do you spot a microtrend ahead of the competition?
Let me get back to you.
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Until recently many have argued that such imperceptively small amounts of medicine could never yield the dramatic changes that homeopathy's proponents claim.
Since homeopathy is now the fastest growing form of alternative medicine worldwide, it appears as though the general population is beginning to think otherwise.
Perhaps we are shifting to a time when we acknowledge the power of subtlety. Then we might be able to appreciate the force of a butterfly's wings. (Comment this)